Photo : mil.in.ua
15 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #333
IN BRIEF
By Madhura S Mahesh
SWEDEN
The Moderates forms coalition along with the Christian Democrats and the Liberals
On 14 September, the Swedish Moderates leader, Ulf Kristersson, said that his party would form a minor coalition government with the Christian Democrats and the Liberals. He would be the next Prime Minister heading the coalition government if the Swedish Parliament, the Riksdag does not vote against his appointment. The far-right, anti-immigration Sweden Democrats are not part of the coalition, however, it said that it will support the government. The Sweden Democrats are the second-largest party elected in the recent election. Even though the current Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson lost by a tiny margin, she remains in Office as a caretaker until the new government is formed. (“Swedish parties agree to form coalition with far-right support,” Deutsche Welle, 14 October 2022)
THE UK
Jeremy to replace the current Treasury Chief
On 14 October, Prime Minister Liz Truss announced that Kwasi Kwarteng will be replaced by Jeremy Hunt as Chancellor of the Exchequer. She also said that the reversal of the cut of the intended increase of tax corporations. Truss said that a detailed economic plan with a breakdown by the independent Office for Budget Responsibility on 31 October. This move has been seen by the public and politicians to secure her position amid scepticism in the Conservative party. (“UK’s Truss drops tax cuts, axes Treasury chief amid turmoil”, AP News, 14 October 2022)
TECHNOLOGY
EU to fund USD 1.15 billion Fibre Optic Cable connecting Europe and Asia via the arctic
On 14 October, EURACTIV reported that the EU is planning to fund a fibre optic cable project that connects Europe to Asia via the Arctic. The Far North Fibre project was built by an Alaskan Company named Far North Digital and Finland’s Cinia. The length of the cable is 14,000 kilometres connecting Scandinavia and Ireland to Japan passing via Greenland, Canada and Alaska. The project was formed due to failing relations with Russia as the existing optic cable was created in partnership with Russia’s telecom operator MegaFon. Russia responds to the Far North Fibre Project with its own Arctic cable named Polar Express, planned to be launched in 2026. The total estimated cost of the cable is USD 1.15 billion. The project will be the first cable to connect Europe to Asia without passing through Suez Canal. (Luca Bertuzzi, “EU eyes Arctic internet cable to connect Europe to Asia via Alaska,” EURACTIV, 14 October 2022)
REGIONAL
Serbia faces increased pressure from the EU and Germany over visa conditions
On 14 October, Germany and EU officials increased pressure on Serbia to tighten its visa conditions for migrants. Serbia has visa-free agreements with India, Tunisia, Syria, Burundi and even the EU. This has led many to travel to the EU illegally through Serbia and stay there without visas. EU Home Affairs Commissioner Ylva Johansson said that Serbia needs to keep a check on its borders and its visas to be considered to be a part of the EU. She also said that if they don’t the EU will have to take drastic steps and cut Serbia’s visa-free agreement with the EU. Frontex an EU border agency told that over 19,160 migrants have come to the EU illegally through Serbia in 2022 alone. (“Germany, EU pressure Serbia to curb illegal migration”, Deutsche Welle, 14 October 2022
Germany and Mongolia to deepen cooperation
On 14 October, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Mongolian Prime Minister Luvsannamsrain Oyun-Erdene talked to the press about the expansion of relations between the two countries. Discussions between the two included strengthening ties and building partnerships on sharing resources, fighting climate change, and transforming the energy sector. Germany hopes to tap into Mongolia’s inherent wealth of copper, rare earth metals and other such important resources and Mongolia hopes to increase sustainable energy production with the help of Germany. This will be an important step for Germany which is looking to diversify sources to reduce dependency on China and Russia. (“Germany hopes to get key raw materials from Mongolia”, AP News, 14 October 2022)
INTERNTAIONAL
EU and US to increase collaboration on sustainable energy in Africa
On 14 October, the US and EU signed an agreement to boost collaboration on green energy in Sub-Saharan Africa. This includes helping the region get access to affordable modern energy and supporting the energy transition. This will help in the reduction of poverty, increasing inclusiveness, fighting climate change and promoting sustainable economic growth. Speaking on this Commissioner for International Partnerships, Jutta Urpilainen, said, “Together, we can electrify even more schools and health centres, and fight even more efficiently the inequalities linked to energy poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa.” (“Global Gateway: EU and US boost cooperation on green energy in Africa”, ec.europa.eu, 14 October 2022)
IMF opposes EU energy price cap
On 14 October, EURACTIV reported that IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva does not agree with the EU on an energy price cap. Disapproving the price cap idea she said that it has the potential to be unsustainable spending from their treasuries. She instead proposes a constant open channel between central banks and ministers of various countries to come together and tackle the rising inflation. This will also prevent clashes between the monetary and fiscal policies of countries. Georgieva emphasised that it should benefit the most vulnerable and needs to be well-targeted and temporary. (“IMF chief tells EU to drop energy price caps idea”, EURACTIV, 14 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 233
By Sai Pranav
War on the Ground
On 14 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a phone call with Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed on humanitarian aid. USD 400 million was announced by Saudi Arabia after the call.
On 13 October, Ukraine's Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in a Kyiv bomb shelter. They discussed the agency's progress toward establishing a nuclear safety and protection zone around the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant. According to Kuleba, the ZNPP’s nuclear safety lies in quickly withdrawing Russian troops from the region and ending terrorizing the power plant’s Ukrainian employees.
On the same day, Ukraine’s Minister of Defence, Oleksii Reznikov, tweeted on Spain’s supply of four hawks air defence systems after Ramstein meetings in Brussels. Air defence has become a priority of the war and France’s President Emmanuel Macron announced that he would send radar and air defence systems to Ukraine in the future.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
On 14 October, LENTA RU reported on the Vice-President of Russia’s International Affairs Council, Yevgeny Buzhinksy, remarks. According to Buzhinsky, the special operations are expected to last in Ukraine for another six months and will continue until its goals are achieved. He said that Russia’s goals were to reach Odessa, connect with Transnistria, capture the Kharkiv region and completely take control of the Donbas region. The ultimate goal of Russia would be to get rid of the regime in Kyiv.
On 14 October, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in his address stated that the partial mobilization that he had previously decreed was coming to an end in two weeks. He estimated that 222,000 out of 300,000 reservists were called up for military service. He said there would be no more mobilization as it might not be needed. He also added that the database with outdated registration methods was the reason for the mistakes during the military conscription calls. He promised to update the database to a modern basis and improve its quality.
On the same day, during the Central Asia summit, Putin proposed Central Asian countries to agree to Russia’s import substitution programme to build new manufacturing and market chains and grow alternative logistical ties with Central Asian countries. He stated that Russia was open to strengthening its multi-aspect cooperation with Central Asian countries. He claimed “Russia is the leading investor in the economies of Central Asian countries,” and had an increase in trade turnover by 16 per cent in the first half of 2022.
On 14 October, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak spoke at a forum on the world's dependence on fossil fuel energy for at least five more decades. He said that the usage of fossil fuels would continue despite the transition to green energy. The transition has taken a step back due to the energy crisis, but the process is slowly occurring. He added that IAEA and leading scientists had not forecasted anything on the energy balance of the future containing only clean energy. He also said that the usage of coal, oil and gas has not decreased in recent years but has gone up due to the supply crisis.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 13 October, Deutsche Welle reported on the difficulty faced by the Ukrainian refugees who were trying to enter Estonia. The refugees are observed to be delayed by the Russian authorities by making them wait in horrendous conditions and thoroughly checked in the border with Estonia to detain those escaping the conscription call. Estonia’s Border Guards are also monitoring strictly in the Narva border to restrict the entry of refugees. Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Estonian Border Control has restricted at least 1,091 Ukrainians from entering their country. This is due to Estonia’s fears over public order and national security.
On 14 October, the US proposed to provide weapons and military vehicles as a part of a new security assistance package worth USD 725 million. The package includes high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARMS), precision-guided artillery and medical supply. The package was the first aid by the US since the recent civilian attacks by Russia.
On 14 October, Ukrinform reported that the Netherlands’ Minister of Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation tweeted about the country’s aid to Ukraine. She said the Netherlands would provide EUR 70 million for heating in the winter season. Defence Minister Kajsa Ollongren said that the Netherlands would send anti-aircraft missiles worth 15 million to Ukraine as military aid.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 14 October, the East Mediterranean countries, Cyprus and Egypt, announced their readiness to help the EU after Russia disrupted Europe's oil and gas supply. The East Mediterranean region has a high potential for the extraction of gas and hydrogen. Egypt can export liquefied gas that is being sent from Israel to Europe. The Mediterranean region being a hub of hydrogen fuel, can also help the EU relieve the energy crunch through the extraction of renewable energy by Egypt and Cyprus.
On 14 October, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) was frustrated by Russia for not letting them see the prisoner-of-war camp in Olenivka prison. It specified Russia by name but said it had rights to access prisoners of war according to the Geneva conventions. The Russian-controlled prison was attacked in July, killing 53 Ukrainian prisoners of war, including some Azovtol fighters. Zelenskyy called out to Russia to let ICRC enter Olenivka prison and claimed that Russia was allegedly trying to cover up the torture and murder of Ukrainian prisoners of war.
On 14 October, International Monetary Fund (IMF) called out to Russia to stop the war. It said the war is driving inflation and slowing the global economy. The conflict has caused energy crises, food insecurity, cost of living, and financial instability.
References
“Zelensky, Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia discuss financial aid, help with POW release,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
“IAEA chief notes progress in creation of protection zone for Zaporizhzhia NPP,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
“Spain hands over four Hawk air defence systems to Ukraine,” Ukrinform 14 October 2022
“The general called the possible deadlines for the completion of the special operation in Ukraine,” LENTA RU, 14 October 2022
“Partial mobilization to end in about two weeks — Putin,” TASS, 14 October 2022
“Russia wants Central Asia to join import substitution effort, Putin says,” TASS, 14 October 2022
“Russian minister outlines future of world’s energy supply,” RT, 14 October 2022
Manuel Orbegozo, “Estonia turns away Ukrainian refugees at EU border after harrowing wait,” Deutsche Welle, 13 October 2022
Mike Stone and Humeyra Pamuk, “U.S. to send munitions, military vehicles to Ukraine in latest aid package,” Reuters, 15 October 2022
“Netherlands to allocate €70M to Ukraine for heating season,” Ukrinform, 14 October 2022
Menelaos Hadjicostis, “EU official: East Med gas can wean bloc off Russian energy,” apnews, 14 October 2022
Daniel Boffey, “Red Cross frustrated by lack of access to PoWs in Russian-occupied Donetsk,” The Guardian, 14 October 2022
David Lawder and Andrea Shalal, “IMF countries strengthen calls to end Ukraine war, Russia blocks communique,” Reuters, 15 October 2022